There are those who’ll tell you the conference tournaments are worthless. If their team is a lock to make the NCAA’s, they say, they’d rather it bow out in the first round so as to leave it rested and ready for the Big Dance, which is all that counts anyway.
By that line of reasoning, Villanova, Pitt, and Maryland, having lost in the first round of their post-season tourneys, are in better shape than Georgetown, which registered victories over South Florida, Syracuse and Marquette before succumbing to West Virginia 57-55 in the Big East Final Saturday night, and Georgia Tech, which defeated three teams before losing in the finals to Duke.
And it follows that Syracuse, a number one seed in the NCAA’s, is well situated to make a run in the tournament since it will have had eight days to rest between its loss to Georgetown Thursday and its first round game this Friday.
And if you believe any of this a) you didn’t watch any of the Big East Tournament last week; and 2) you have no sense of history.
On Thursday, during its quarterfinal round, Syracuse was pitted against Georgetown, Marquette faced Villanova, Pitt played Notre Dame, and West Virginia, the eventual winner, met Cincinnati. All eight teams had been voted into the nation’s top 25 at some point in the season. At tip-off, five were rated in the top 20, and three were in the top 10.
Each game was magnificent. Three of the four came down to the last seconds. Georgetown played arguably its best game of the season. Marquette displayed the tenacity and determination which has carried it well beyond its talent all season. Notre Dame befuddled Pitt with its new, slowdown pace. And Cincinnati, featuring three linebackers in its rotation, battled West Virginia to a standstill before losing on a buzzer bankshot by Da’Sean Butler.
The drama continued into the semifinals and finals, when West Virginia edged Georgetown in one of the best games of the season. Does anyone really doubt that Georgetown, West Virginia, Notre Dame, and Marquette are better off and better prepared for NCAA play by virtue of having played well and survived these crucial tournament tests?
During the era of post-season conference tournaments, which came into wide use in the early 80’s, no team has won an NCAA title without having won at least one conference tournament game. And eight of the last twelve NCAA champions won their conference tournament.
In no other sport do teams improve or regress more suddenly over the course of a season than in college basketball. An injury here, a dramatic improvement by a freshman there, and Miami can upend Virginia Tech or Minnesota can blast Purdue. Instead of discounting conference tournament results when evaluating NCAA contenders, it may be a good idea to view them as a prism though which we can evaluate the upcoming NCAA games.
By that measure, Syracuse, Villanova, Pitt, Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Florida State should be downgraded going into the Tournament. Each of these teams played uninspired ball during its conference tournament. The losses should be taken not as an aberration but as a reflection of the teams’ inconsistencies or vulnerabilities, or decline.
For instance, Georgetown, by shooting 58% against Syracuse, may have provided a template for attacking Syracuse’s vaunted 2-3 zone. Villanova and Pitt will both suffer for lack of a low post game. Purdue and Michigan State are ravaged by injuries. Maryland may be too dependent on Vasquez. Wake, Clemson, and Florida State, all first round ACC losers, are just not very good.
On the positive side, Georgetown, Kansas, Temple, West Virginia, and Ohio State all breed positive vibes, having won or played great in their conference tournaments; and Big Twelve members Baylor and Texas A&M loom as threats to advance to a round of eight matchup in Houston in the South region.
Kentucky and Duke were victors in their tourneys, but neither demonstrated the dominance which we would associate with a number one seed. West Virginia poses a very real threat to knock off Kentucky in the East and Duke may be shocked to play a good team for a change. Remember, the Devils were blown out by Georgetown at Verizon in late January.
The West bracket is wide open. Syracuse cannot be expected to parade through to the round of eight. They will need Onuaku to return from injury, which is uncertain. The feeling here is that Butler has an excellent chance to advance in the upper bracket, and that BYU could sneak through to a regionals date in Salt Lake City.
The Midwest has the greatest concentration of quality teams. And Kansas, the number one seed in the tournament, may have the toughest path to Indianapolis. Ohio State, Georgetown, and Maryland are a difficult two through four grouping. Michigan State is still dangerous at number five.
After six weeks of listening to Bracketologist Joe Lunardi tell us who’s in and who’s out, it’s a pleasure to get to the actual games. Lunardi teaches a course in “Fundamentals of Bracketology” at St. Joseph’s University. Bracketology is defined as the “art and science” of forecasting teams that will be selected for the annual NCAA men’s basketball championship. The course is open to the public and cost $249.00.
Lunardi had the chutzpah to project the entire field, game-by-game, seed-by-seed, in a one hour show on ESPN before the actual Selection Show on CBS. Not surprisingly, he registered misses all over the place, including transposing Syracuse and Duke, and rating Georgetown as a two seed over Villanova. If Lunardi were taking his own course, he would have registered no more than a B.
Of course, maybe the errors were by the Selection Committee, which clearly did not know what it was doing when it selected Florida over Mississippi State, Wake Forest over Virginia Tech, and Minnesota over Illinois. When intangible factors such as RPI and strength of schedule supersede conference records and head-to-head match-ups in importance, it’s time to reevaluate the selection process, or rework the definition of RPI.
This looks like the toughest year in years for the number ones to hold serve. It may be that none of the four makes it to Indianapolis. What is likely, though, is that there will be at least one game where each of the number ones is subjected to a severe test, where it needs a buzzer-beater or late-game rally to garner victory.
And the teams best equipped to pull it off will be the ones who survived a same or similar situation in their post-season conference tournament.
































